1.5C-scenario
Definition
A 1.5C-scenario refers to a climate mitigation trajectory or pathway that limits the rise in global mean surface temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by the year 2100. These scenarios are characterized by rapid and deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors of the global economy, aimed at significantly reducing the risks and impacts of climate change.
Key Characteristics
- Ambitious Mitigation: Requires immediate, unprecedented systemic changes to energy, land, urban, and industrial systems.
- Net-Zero Goal: Generally entails reaching “net-zero” carbon dioxide emissions by around 2050.
- Carbon Removal: Frequently involves the deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies to offset residual emissions in hard-to-abate sectors.
- Global Coordination: Necessitates international cooperation as defined by global climate policy frameworks.
Applications
- Policy Planning: Used by governments and international bodies to set NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) under the UNFCCC.
- Corporate Strategy: Companies utilize 1.5C-aligned pathways to develop science-based climate targets through frameworks like the SBTi.
- Climate Modeling: Serves as a primary benchmark in research conducted by the IPCC to analyze the feasibility and socio-economic implications of climate action.
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